It took more than two hundred years for America to allow its second class citizens into a voting booth: women and African Americans both stepping through that curtain even as glass ceilings and other restrictions continued to exist.
But rigorous efforts for equality have continued to exist and both constituencies slowly increased their prominence and impact on American politics.
The success of women in politics has indeed increased exponentially in the past twenty years. They are in Congress, they are Governors in major States, they are Mayors in cities large and small.
In New York several young women of color – African Americans and Hispanics – have bumped long-term Democratic Congressmen from their safe places.
Nationally, Joe Biden will name a woman as his Vice Presidential running mate…perhaps a black woman. And he has a large group to choose from.
One might have thought, or perhaps hoped, that women’s talents and often different value systems would counter or perhaps expand the predictable efforts of men; even affected the power structure that supports government.
But there is no evidence that women’s involvement in politics has done anything to influence or certainly stop the slow decline in the efficacy and honesty of our political system or our government. The girls were finally let into the Old Boys Club. They fit right in and made themselves at home.
THE IMPACT
Since 1988 the Republican Party has lost the popular vote in every Presidential election despite victories for the Bushes – Father and son.
An analysis by party leaders after a second loss to Barack Obama concluded that the Republican Party needed to attract young people and people of color in far greater numbers than ever before.
The one constituency that remained consistent for them was that of older suburban white women. That support has held fast. As predicted in early 2016 by popular magazine journalist Gail Sheehy, a majority of that cohort voted against the first woman to ever become a national party nominee for President, Hillary Clinton.
The Republican Party ignored that recommendation to enlarge the party base and in Donald Trump found a candidate who would not have to appeal to an enlarged base as long as two things remained true: He would have the support of a solid majority of older white suburban women and that he could become President by way of the Electoral College.
So he did and so he plans to do again this year.
Why has this group of voters remained so constant especially for a man widely seen by women in very negative terms for his personal behavior and attitudes?
Could it be that older Republican-voting suburban white women have a genuine fear of change in American society? Could it be that their financial position gives them a place in the pecking order that they feel is under attack and they are fighting to keep it…people with money and power at the top, all others below?
Are they comfortable in their place in the greedier aspects of capitalism and do they reject the idea of social capitalism where people are encouraged to grow and achieve a higher status? Whether or not we have a European caste system, we do have a hierarchy of power and it so often begins with “position” in the society.
When we talk about “gated communities”’ in the suburbs we are not talking about NYCHA housing.
Do these women resent the presence of minorities in their World, especially minorities of color and resent the amount of time America spends talking about…even if we do little else?
Do they continue to fiercely oppose fair housing apartments in white suburbia not necessarily because of overcrowding or falling real estate values or even because of racism but because they refuse to accept people they see “as less” from entering their domain?
It has recently been suggested that problems associated with race might instead be associated with the way in which America considers the ‘place’ of people in our society and the expectation that they stay in that place forever: caste instead of race. Clearly this is a subject for another time…might in might very explain attitudes that defy change after hundreds of years.
2020
We know this…polls show Joe Biden in the lead in many States including some in key battleground areas where TV and social media spots come non-stop.
Those in both parties looking at these numbers suggest that older white suburban women no longer seem to favor Mr. Trump finding fault with the obvious lack of empathy regarding Covid victims and still talking and tweeting against the advice of the medical research experts working with him.
If the Trump campaign believes these polls they do not show it.
He has doubled down on all his previous positions clearly aiming his message at this influential group of women and other like-minded individuals in the country giving up on a popular vote victory and focusing on an Electoral College victory
It is clear now that while some politically involved women can see beyond what is to what they believe they want, a powerful number of them right now hold the Presidential election in their votes. If they do as so many groups tend to do they will not vote their consciences but will vote to protect their interests and status.
The Trump campaign is counting on it in a very big way.
There are now more women enrolled in law and medical schools than men.
A powerful block of women can now decide the next Presidential election.
Fighting for equality is a long game but belief is even longer and amazing outcomes are possible.