As we silently, mirthlessly merge 2020 into 2021, it is impossible to ignore the unending chaos. The calendar will say 2021 but we will still be in 2020 for a long, long time.
The pandemic is more ferocious than ever: more sickness, more hospitalizations, more death than at the beginning despite what we have learned and are still learning. Too much of America acts as if this was all some kind of hoax and refuses to wear masks, social distance, avoid a social life with large groups of unprotected people. Pleas for the right kind of behavior are ignored by millions who continue to do as they please despite the tragic results.
Just look at New York City.
Empty avenue blocks for as far as the eye can see…right in the middle of the day. All those empty forty story office buildings…all those windows without lights month after month. Broadway closed. Kids in and mostly out of school in the most destructive period of no learning in more than 100 years. People moving out of apartment buildings and heading to Long Island or Westchester. Shootings every night in a city loaded with guns and because of horrendous political decisions, people with guns…shooting randomly…just to do it.
And with all of this now and for months to come is the realization of a new more potent strain of Covid, months of vaccinations that must add up to 70% of the population if we are to put an end to this pandemic -and the fact that there will be an election for Mayor in just 11 months.
Unless there is a startling change in our public behavior which no one is predicting, this will be an election held at arms-length with little personal movement by candidates among the public. Direct mail, TV spots and social media spending will be the only way for messages to be delivered right through the primaries and probably up until Election Day.
Even with New York City’s public funding for qualified candidates, this will be an enormous financial challenge for all but the wealthiest and best known candidates.
And yet, with 15 announced candidates on the Democratic side and more to come…there are more candidates for the job than you can shake a stick at.
SYSTEMIC DAMAGE
The Nine months of Covid-19 have left a significant mark on every system within New York City’s government.
CRIMINAL JUSTICE
The rushed, emotional and supercharged State and City government response to the death of George Floyd and the similar deaths that followed has driven a major fault line through our criminal justice system. The public outcry to defund the NYC Police Department has caused the end of a division department which focused on getting guns off the street, the end of the use of bail to keep known criminals off the street, the cancellation of a new rookie graduating class, the end of overtime work that severely impacted senior members of the department and has triggered unplanned significant retirements, the general vilification of members of New York’s Finest and an increase in crime so explosive that people now report a level of fear not seen for years under the leadership of Bratton and Kelly.
EDUCATION
Before Covid, the New York City School system was so poorly run by a succession of Mayors and their choices of Chancellors that it could only graduate one-quarter of a senior class qualified to attend college; three-quarters of high school graduates needed significant remedial work to get into a community college which could help them; four year colleges want no part of remedial work.
Despite the promises of the Governor’s office it has never given any indication of learning whether NYC’s pre-kindergarten program actually helps our children.
Since Covid, more than half of New York’s youngest children are at home…less than 20% attend hybrid classes, sometime in school and sometime at home. Many of the poorest kids never get the wi-fi connection at home to learn at all.
All of the system’s junior and senior high school students are involved in” distance learning”. Speak to any teacher and you will learn with no apologies that this attempt is an utter failure. It is so bad that even students know they are not learning.
HEALTHCARE
The shortfalls in NYC’s preparation for significant illness is as much a known fact as is the persistent bravery and intense focus of our healthcare professionals. No one expects a pandemic but now we know that being prepared for the unexpected is proof of a system’s ability to perform.
It is up to government leadership to make certain that we no longer depend on healthcare professionals to maintain a level of preparation. The system must provide.
BUSINESS and FINANCE
The office buildings are empty. Some rent is being paid. Some taxes are being paid. Some real estate loans are being repaid. But all in all the possibilities for financial failure are everywhere.
Entire industries are being threatened. New York City no longer produces goods…only services and those businesses providing service are essentially closed for what could be forever. The theater, restaurants, hotels all responding to New York City’s principal business Tourism are shuttered. One knows they must come back but how and when remains an unknown.
We do not know exactly what tax money is available in either the State or the City. Neither the City nor State has updated its budget..other than to say there are massive shortfalls.
TRANSPORTATION
The MTA is as always working with less money than it claims to need. Commuter trains are essentially empty. Subways have their moments of busy but are millions of customers short of what is usual and necessary to maintain the system. As long as people are not coming to work, our public transportation system will remain crippled and endangered.
And yet people are lining up to become Mayor of New York. Is it any wonder that one who might, John Catsimatidis, said he is afraid to run….because he might win.
DEMOCRATS
Democratic voters in NYC outnumber Republicans at least 8 to one…and maybe more in this post-Trump election year. But for Staten Island and certain parts of Queens, the Trump years will take a toll on Republican candidates for anything. Those feelings will not last but may play a role in the immediate campaigns just ahead.
One of the significant reasons for the formation of the Liberal Party in 1943 was to make the Democratic Party honest. While we did some excellent work in the 1950s and 1960’s, the persistence of corruption has remained and exists today. The symbol of the Democratic Party might still be a donkey but it could easily be a banner with the words Pay to Play as keynote to all activity.
Two men with experience sit at the top of the line of 15 announced candidates to date. Scott Stringer and Eric Adams.
Stringer found Liberal Party support years ago in his quest for the State Assembly and won. He has had a long and decent career in government serving as both Manhattan Borough President and most recently as Comptroller.
We have found his infrequent audits to be consistently compelling and revealing and the follow-up to them all but nonexistent. With the freedom to investigate, report and press for changes, he has chosen instead to remain safely away from whatever fallout might have endangered the Administration. To indicate a disappointment in this performance is to indicate a lack of understanding about how things work in the Democratic Party…top to bottom; the lack of results speaks volumes.
Eric Adams is a decent guy who has spent a long career in the NYC Police Department. His career as Brooklyn Borough President has been unassuming because term limits curtail the possibilities and so most Borough Presidents do very little to become standouts.
Does he have the experience to become an effective Mayor? Well he certainly does compared to every other announced candidate. None of them have any executive experience in government and that includes Andrew Yang who is best known for running for President and showing little but enthusiasm during the debates. Enthusiasm is not a substitute for basic knowledge and experience.
REPUBLICANS
Every city has its power base. In Philadelphia and Chicago for instance, its the bankers. They call the political “shots”.
In New York, the Real Estate State Board of NY (REBNY) is the power broker especially in Republican politics..
In 2012 REBNY understood that independent business success John Catsimatidis, was ready to try his luck at running for Mayor. Stymied by Mike Bloomberg’s ability to buy a third term, Catsimatidis waited awhile and then announced in late Winter.
Kenneth Langone who essentially ran the New York University Medical Center. which bears his name, sought a candidate to stop Catsimatidis.
As with most power brokers, REBNY wants unlimited cooperation from the politicians it ‘manages’ and they knew they couldn’t control Catsimatidis.
REBNY got lucky by finding a genuinely experienced manager with important government experience: Joseph Llhota had essentially run New York City for then Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
REBNY was successful in stopping Catsimatidis and then found that it could work with DeBlasio…and has.
Uncertain about Catsimatidies plans for the next Mayoral campaign they found a little known real estate developer, Paul Massey, to announce for the Republican nomination. Catsimatidis did not run and DeBlasio had no real opposition in his reelection bid.
All of this to suggest that if Catsimatidis tries again, REBNY will provide opposition for the Republican nomination. REBNY already knows it can work with Scott Stringer.
Clearly the next Mayor will have an almost impossible task. Bringing New York back to pre-pandemic days will take a wise and strenuous effort even if there was no pandemic. But all signs indicate the pandemic will be with us perhaps throughout 2021.
No matter the politics we must admit to appreciating the willingness of so many men and women to throw them-selves into the effort to revive New York City. We hope that whatever the outcome each and every one of them will find a leadership place for themselves in the work ahead.
No one doubts all the reasons for the effort. No one can doubt the successful outcome.
Sad to say, I fully agree with the gloomy assessment expressed in the opening paragraphs of this essay. One might think we are under some kind of curse.