A Face in the Crowd

A Conspiracy Theory

THE DEMOCRATS

This is written before the results of the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential primary are known, and before the primary in South Carolina and the caucus in Nevada take place.

What we know now is obvious: the televised Presidential primary debates have shown the clear divide between those candidates who believe the Democratic Party should stand for something, some who believe it does and some who think it is time for something new. All believe Donald Trump must be defeated…each believes he or she is the One.

We think that nothing that happens between now and March 3, Super Tuesday, will matter. That’s when thirteen States-California, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Colorado, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Utah, Maine and Vermont will hold their primaries and the impact of Michael Bloomberg’s quarter of a billion dollar TV and social media effort (so far) to become the Democratic Presidential candidate will hit the primary campaign like a ton of money.

Little has been said by the candidates or the debate moderators other than America should not elect anyone who can simply buy the candidacy because of his personal wealth.

What follows is an attempt to project Bloomberg’s entrance into the campaign and what it will mean to the efforts of the leading candidates: Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren and Biden.

THE PLAYERS

Bernie Sanders is once again confounding the pundits who simply cannot believe that he has taken up where he left off in the 2016 primaries…receiving enormous personal and financial support from millennials who again see his approach to reconstructing America towards equality as the one to follow whether people label it ‘socialist’ or not.

Sanders has not changed a word of his 2016 stump speech nor his fierce demeanor as he rails against the power of the few over the many. His grit and determination is presently overcoming fears that Trump will never let up on the socialist charge…surely beginning to call him a communist as soon as he can.

No one questions the zealotry of the Sanders’ supporters which certainly seems to match that of Trump supporters: whatever the guy says is OK.

The question Democrats are already asking is whether they dare nominate anyone who does not have the kind of enthusiastic, almost cult-like support that Sanders possesses; supporters believe what he says without any concern about what the costs may be or whether any of his policies will win Congressional support.

But here is something that Democratic decision-makers should consider: David Brooks of the New York Times reports that only 53% of Sanders voters say they will certainly support any other Democrat who becomes the nominee.

“This is no idle threat. In 2016, in Pennsylvania 117,000 Sanders primary voters went for Trump in the general election and Trump won the State by 44,292 ballots. In Michigan, 48,000 Sanders voters went for Trump, and he won the State by 10,704 votes. In Wisconsin, 51,300 Sanders voters went for Trump and Trump won the State by 22,748.”

Those States gave Trump his Electoral College victory. Numbers do not lie.

We have written in detail about Sen. Elizabeth Warren in an earlier piece. We see her fortunes sliding due to what we believe is a political miscalculation about what Americans need to see and hear to believe in a Presidential candidate; it has rarely been ‘smarts’.

Linked all to comfortably with Sanders in the beginning – especially about ‘Medicare for All’ she came to see that even with a careful calculation so that people will know what the costs are (Bernie can’t quite bring himself to name that number) it all appeared overwhelming and unbelievable – and so she began backing away…saying she will take two years to show America what all of this can mean before any such changes as eliminating private health insurance take place.

Despite her two victories in Massachusetts, she is not a natural politician like Amy Klobuchar. Too full of energy, she sounds strident, professorial, sometimes even impatient on TV, even though her rallies show a different personality. The doubt is not about what she knows but whether she can sell herself to the public and win.

Joseph Biden has never been a favorite Presidential candidate. In this his fourth try he is doing his best to sound like the man Democratic voters know. That may be his problem.

Pete Buttigieg is a classic dark horse. Highly intelligent but with a carefully calculated speaking style high on reason but light on policy he has become the candidate who at present represents the classic middle-ground…liberal enough, as a gay man would be, but careful and conservative as an Indiana Mayor has to be.

Clearly he has little experience in any of the major areas of government but has found a place where a clear vacuum exists…and the money crowd – driven by the Fashion industry – to help him fill that place

Michael Bloomberg is a self-made billionaire. A Wall Street guy, he took a $25 million buyout from Morgan Stanley and turned it into a money-machine, complete with his own skyscraper and the ability to hire good people to make his financial information business a great success.

With the financial capacity to act, Bloomberg has made it a practice to simply buy what he wants…whether it is to be chairman of John Hopkins University Medical Center, a first-time Mayor of New York or a third term Mayor despite the two-term limit on that job. He simply ‘influenced’ the votes of the New York City Council, along with the support of many non-profit agencies suddenly receiving Bloomberg Foundation grants. The Council voted itself a third term as well…at that time.

His causes are genuine. When Bloomberg wanted to see New York State adopt marriage equality, he and Tom Golisano, a Rochester businessman, promised four Republican State Senators that they would fund any primary moves against them if they voted for the Marriage Equality Act. They did and it passed.

And he has launched genuine financial attempts to make something good happen with our national gun laws. He spent significantly to help the Democratic Party regain the House of Representatives.

And now he is determined to defeat Donald Trump and as he sees the open divides among the Democratic candidates he has turned loose the spigots of his money.

It is not difficult to fully assess his success as Mayor of New York for twelve years…but we will not do that here accept to note that he is not an accomplished public speaker nor a warm and open campaigner. He will try to be. Donald Trump is a TV personality born to find and face the red light over a TV camera.

THE QUESTION OF COLOR

Several decades ago a number of the political writers who wrote for magazines like the ATLANTIC – thinking of Richard Rovere – predicted that in the near future, the Democratic Party would become the party of ‘color’ – the party which would attract immigrants coming to the United States from Central and South American and the Islands and that without these votes, the Democratic Party could no longer win the Presidency.

It would appear that this prediction has come true. More native-born Americans now say they are Republicans rather than Democrats…and it is easy to say that white America has found its President in Donald Trump.

Keeanga-Yamahtta Taylor, assistant Professor of African-American Studies at Princeton University reports that the black vote in America declined in 2016 for the first time in 20 years, falling to 60% from 67% in 2012. She claims that the idea that a black candidate was necessary to get out the black vote falls apart. “…Kamala Harris and Cory Booker struggled to gain traction among black voters in part because of a lack of clarity on how their platforms could translate into an improvement of the quality of life for African-Americans.”

Despite the popularity of Barack and Michelle Obama among African-Americans, Professor Taylor reports that “African-Americans’ ratings of public policy, race relations and the state of the country declined over his Presidency.

“In 2009 71% thought Mr. Obama’s election was ‘one of the most important advances for blacks’…by the summer of 2016 that number had dropped to 51%. In 2012, only 20% of African-Americans believed the country was heading in the wrong direction…that number increased to 48% by 2016. 52% of African-Americans believed that Mr. Obama’s policies had not done enough to help African-Americans prosper.”

All of which explains a number of things about the failure of the Hillary Clinton campaign…and of the importance of the Democratic Party finding a candidate who can appeal strongly to all peoples of color among American voters.

CONSPIRACY THEORY

Consider this possibility:

Bloomberg’s money and his personal efforts at campaigning will result in a Convention in Milwaukee without a clear-cut nominee. The first ballot will come up short as those delegates selected by primary results will not provide a winner.

The second round of voting will include those who are Special Delegates selected by the Party itself. In 2016 Hillary Clinton had these delegates all to herself making it virtually impossible for Sanders to win unless he had won almost every primary contest.

The rules were changed and now the Special Delegates will vote on the second go-round. Could Bloomberg literally buy enough of these individuals to win the nomination? Would he even try?

We think not and what will happen then is that the ‘smoke-filled” backroom doors will close and the top Democratic Party people will have to deal to find the nominee.

When none of the contenders is able to win those close-quarter struggles, the party will do as it has done before – but not for a very, very long time: it will have to draft someone from the outside to run for the Presidency. Someone who never entered a primary contest nor indicated an interest in running for the office. Adlai Stevenson, the Governor of Illinois was drafted to run against American war hero Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952.

A divorced man (a status unheard of in Presidential candidates) who was respected for his mind and his manner, he was essentially unknown nationally. He resisted but finally relented. He ran a remarkable race while losing and then did so again for the Party in 1956. He went on to represent the United States at the United Nations.

Is there such a man or woman in America who would step into a hornet’s nest in order to defeat Donald Trump? Someone who could match his complete mastery of television? Who could appear majestic but tough and handle his stunts, tricks and nicknames?

Is there a person who can deal with the politics and issues before us…bringing to the table not only the other candidates and their supporters but those Americans who want a change but not one they are unable to understand and support?

Can this person reach the minority communities in America who now hold the success of the Democratic Party in their votes and also influence the election of enough Democratic Senators to make government work again?

And can that person raise the stunning amount of money necessary to win the election?

Is there one such person who combines all of these abilities with a long-term proven record as a leader of men and women?

Yes. A person who will bring the power of the Iron Lady, Britain’s Margaret Thatcher and the clever wisdom of Israel’s Golda Meir to the American Presidency:

Nancy Pelosi.

So that is the conspiracy theory.

The floor is open for further nominations.