Control Freaks

Donald and Andrew in Charge

IN THE BEGINNING

On the surface the differences are obvious. One dark eyed, dark haired, Italian-American complexion – the other blue eyed, blonde, bronzed –Aryan. One a life-long Democrat, literally growing up in the political and governmental life; the other sneering at formal politics and labels, using politicians and buying their favors when necessary, knowing nothing and caring little about governance.

One well-trained in the edited formality of political speech; the other recognizing the public’s awareness of the lies and self-serving qualities of that speech using his own blunt, free-form approach to the obvious: boasting, sneering, belittling, over-praising, frat-boy crude but a masterful salesman able to sell junk or a monument with the same words, convinced and convincing even if the chatter changes daily.

Donald Trump, President of the United States

Andrew Cuomo, now three-time Governor of New York.

Very different men. Or maybe not.

Consider: Both men were born in Queens, NY.

Both men the sons of very successful, self-made Fathers…very different men with different careers but with strong, commanding personalities and known as tough, demanding guys.

Fred Trump the real estate developer and builder. It took a little time but the pay-off was big and he’d earned it.

Mario Cuomo, catholic schools, a star athlete with Major League baseball aspirations and then a local lawyer with a gift for expressive language and a determination to lead an influential life…with politics the entry to that life.

Both sons were kept close. Trump could afford a prestigious college and graduate school for his son.

Mario, not quite the same but OK for a middle class family.

Neither son excelled at school nor did Andrew give any indication he could be a successful lawyer. It didn’t matter.

Neither man a Mama’s boy with Trump known to be quite distant – some suggest his ferociously negative attitude towards women come from feelings about his Mother. Andrew, Daddy’s shadow, his younger brother Chris closer to their much-admired Mom – the former first lady of New York.

And we know that Andrew started as his Father’s shadow and eventually became his campaign chief, learning it all on the job. And we know that while Mario chose not to become Bill Clinton’s rival for the Presidency or his eventual Supreme Court nominee, he did get Clinton to name Andrew as Secretary of HUD..elevating him out of New York and Mario’s shadow and into Washington and across the nation.

There would be bumps in the road for both. Cuomo married into and divorced out of the Kennedy family. They never liked him. He came back to New York to run for Governor and then with a difficult divorce and little exposure to New York on his own, he ended up running away from a primary for Governor against State Comptroller Carl McCall.

Andrew all but disappeared, running a non-profit foundation for a friend.

As for Trump there were several divorces, bankruptcies from failed projects which he learned to handle masterfully by becoming too big to fail and his continued effort to become “known” in the city and the country.

He solved that problem by becoming a reality TV star on a series of programs designed to feature his stern visage, so-called business acumen and the sheer pleasure of always being able to say “You’re Fired” to various participants on the show. After years of being his own public relations man desperate to have his name in the paper, the TV show made him a personality in the homes of millions of TV viewers for years.

New York knew Donald Trump as something of a character who loved to be seen with beautiful blondes. But across the nation, he’d became a household name…amusing people and welcome in their homes. Portrayed always as a blunt, straight-forward boss, the very model of a very rich and powerful business executive.

The seeds had been sown.

TODAY

Andrew Cuomo has slipped under the radar of his failures to emerge with a third term as Governor of New York. He is teamed with his hand-picked Attorney General Letitia James, NYC’s Public Advocate who proved a successful supporter of Mayor DeBlasio no matter what and that behavior encouraged her selection by Cuomo deeply concerned about any legal attacks on his ‘pay to play’ governance. Although the AG is supposed to be independent of the Governor, she will be a close ally of his making certain to help him avoid legal trouble. Thomas DiNapoli serves another term as State Comptroller. He proved to Cuomo that he could be a loyal teammate never producing a single audit critical of Cuomo policies over an eight year period.

As for his real record-to-date, Cuomo knows little about public education..though the State has the principle responsibility for its success or failure. He does know that New York spends more money per child than any other State but is about 23rd in standing across the nation. He admits to frustration but is lost about how to fix it and no one challenges him.

He has spent tens of millions in self-promoting TV advertising touting New York State’s attributes for economic development with little return. He has spent hundreds of millions on business development investments upstate – to find nothing but failure. When he entered office New York State was dead last in economic development. Eight years later it still is.

While the State has massive responsibility for mass transit, he has essentially ignored the failures of the Subway system after taking credit for actually opening the long-delayed Second Avenue subway …even as that subway line is still years away from its planned completion. After that opening, Andrew withdrew from mass transit concerns and when Subway maintenance failures suddenly started to produce terrible delays and cancellations, he has taken cover behind his demands that NYC spend significant money for subway ‘fixes’ before he spends State dollars. Both city and State stumble forward.

Cuomo has proved most adept at manipulating the State Legislature to his needs. He effectively blunted the liberal spending State Assembly with a craftily designed combination of Democrats and Republicans in the State Senate. When that scam ran itself out, he has supported the campaigns of Democrats who will do his bidding now that the State Senate has become solidly Democrat.

This ability to manipulate the system is clearly Cuomo’s most powerful talent. It has permitted the centuries old ‘pay to play’ corruption in Albany to continue unabated…and has provided the Governor with a financial war chest to do something his Father never did: run for President.

As for President Donald Trump, after two years of swinging wildly at the system, using Executive actions to obliterate as much regulation as Obama erected, getting what he wants from a Republication Congress that he has intimidated and treating the job much as he does developing real estate empires, he finds himself in imminent trouble.

Now he must deal with a Democratically controlled House of Representatives who will at least force the government to operate once again. He deeply fears the subpoena power implicit in the House rules. Although we do not know exactly why, the confluence of the Mueller investigation of Russian collusion in the 2016 Presidential campaign and his fear that his tax returns will be publically examined for the first time, is driving him into a deep state of tweet. He will again make changes in his staff and members of his cabinet…rumors abound.

Nothing will change him or stop him from doing what he does in all areas of the job. What we see is what we’ve got. Only time will tell what that means in the next two years.

2020

The Democrats will either press for legislation in a number of areas or give in to their political yearnings and focus on revealing the secrets that subpoenas might disclose. If they openly attack him, they will appeal to the basic Trump…his strength. There will be no government…no legislation that matters…it will be a two year war.

Whatever his financial holdings and obligations that might be revealed those who support Trump will not change their view of him.

It is difficult to know what it would take to make Trump a one-term President and get him not to run for reelection. While you could make some educated guesses based on the behavior of Presidents over the years, nothing will change the fact that Trump is a one-off…so that precedent means nothing.

But will the enduing nasty fight over two years spur ambitious Republican office-holders to see Trump as weak enough to challenge in a primary? When they look at the Democratic field now presenting itself – 16 or so potential primary candidates ready to go to war with each other as the Republican did in 2016, will Republicans see Trump as so weakened that they could beat him in a primary and then take-on the eventual Democratic winner?

One fact is clear neither party stands for very much. The wave of new, younger Democratic winners in the mid-terms seems so promising. People came out to vote in record numbers for a mid-term election. For a mid-term election, nice but not yet a norm.

Andrew Cuomo facing no opposition in the general election spent several months trying out his political ads against Donald Trump. He is clearly prepared to run for President and sees his essentially centrist approach to government as realism compared to the so-called progressive demands for all kinds of wonderful programs this country is not prepared to support.

He will venture where his Father did not although doing so against a man who knows no boundaries of insult or personal revelation might put him in extremely difficult situations.

One looks ahead to see the Democratic primary debates as Republicans 2016 redux. A line-up of men and women running right across the stage. Each of them trying out not on a set of principles, policies and beliefs but on who will be the strongest candidate against Donald Trump.

And we cringe at the possibilities.

POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES 2020